BALLISTIC
Raids and decoys
Large salvos and decoys in midcourse stress tracking, discrimination and interceptor inventory.
MISSION 04.3 · MISSILE DEFENSE
See the launch.
Hold the track.
Hypersonic gliders and unusual approach routes have moved missile defense toward space. This mission studies warning, tracking and interceptor layers at the architecture level, with open models built from public sources, so the trades can be checked rather than asserted.
CONCEPT PHASE · MINUTES TIMELINE · PUBLIC SOURCES ONLY
FIG. / FUNCTIONAL CHAIN
- warninfrared detection from GEO, HEO and LEO
- trackbirth-to-death custody across layers
- characterizetype, trajectory, predicted impact point
- decidepre-authorized rules, human on the loop
- engageground, sea, or a space layer (subject to trade)
- assesskill assessment, re-engage
WARNING
Minutes
KEY TRADE
Absentee ratio · cost per engagement
SCOPE
Architecture-level analysis
THE THREATThreats that fly low,
Threats that fly low,
turn, or come the long way.
Each class stresses a different part of the architecture.
HYPERSONIC
Low and maneuvering
Glide vehicles fly below ground-radar coverage and turn; they need continuous tracking from space.
FRACTIONAL ORBIT
Unusual azimuths
Approaches over the south pole need polar and highly elliptical coverage.
THE ARCHITECTUREReuse what exists.
Reuse what exists.
Add what is missing.
This mission's share of the five layers.
L0 · Ground and sea | Reuse: Early-warning radars; ground- and sea-based interceptors; battle management Add: Fire-control quality tracks built from space sensors |
|---|---|
L1 · LEO | Reuse: Proliferated transport and infrared tracking layers; hypersonic tracking prototypes Add: Continuous hypersonic custody; an optional space-based interceptor layer, subject to the trade below |
L2 · GEO and HEO | Reuse: SBIRS and Next-Gen OPIR missile warning Add: Polar HEO coverage for fractional-orbital corridors |
THE CENTRAL TRADEHow many must be up there
How many must be up there
for one to be in range?
That is the absentee ratio. With launch cost and interceptor cost, it decides whether a space layer pays off.
GEOMETRY
Altitude and inclination set how much of the threat corridor each satellite covers.
TIMELINE
Flyout time against the threat's burn time sets the reach.
SALVO
Raid size and how spread out the threat corridors are multiply the count.
COST
Cost to orbit and per interceptor turn the count into cost per covered engagement.
THE STANDARD
Open tools. Traceable evidence.
Concept phase: these are aims, not results.
An architecture is a hypothesis until a reproducible trade study says otherwise.
Every number on these pages is a planning estimate from public sources. The program's job is to replace each one with a traceable result from open analysis tools: stated assumptions, the tool version, the inputs, and the output. The work uses public, unclassified sources only.